Official Luthiers Forum!

I've been looking around at a lot of builders websites lately and have noticed a correlation between price of the guitar and length of the waiting list. This is no surprise obviously since the longer the waiting list, the more people who want those guitars, which obviously drives up price (at least from the dealers, not necessarily the luthier). The question is do you think this is a semi-reliable indicator of the guitars investment value in the long run?

As an example, a new Robert Ruck guitar has a waiting period of over 10 years. He has closed his waiting list, so the only way to get one is from a dealer or some other seller. His new guitars run in the $20,000-$40,000 range, however a mint condition 1998 with the same basic sound and appointments can be had for about $9,000. Do you think the huge price for his new guitars is a result of the short term demand, or is it an indicator of the skyrocketing price of concert instruments? This is not limited to Ruck guitars, but almost all the high end classical builders. How do you tease out the difference between short term supply/demand versus long term investment value, especially when the name isn't Martin or Gibson?

Cheers!

John

[QUOTE=Hesh1956] [QUOTE=John Elshaw] The question is do you think this is a semi-reliable indicator of the guitars investment value in the long run?

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No. Wayne Henderson, with an up to ten year waiting list, sells all of his guitars at one price and a fairly low price if I recall correctly.

In Wayne's example it would seem like the waiting list is a good indicator of investment value since a Henderson can be flipped for 5+ times the cost of a new one.

Why then is the waiting list not a good indicator of investment value.

Because IMHO guitars are very elastic in demand meaning that guitars are usually purchased with disposable, discretionary income.

In the event of an economic downturn things that are elastic in demand will be the first items to lose value.

So the point that I am trying to make is that in a stable, all things equal economy the wait list probably is a good indicator of future investment value. But in real world terms anything that is elastic in demand is very subject to the state of the current economic climate.
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Hesh,
Now I'm really confused!

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Peter M.
Cornerstone Guitars
http://www.cornerstoneukes.com

I think he means, it's like investing in the stock market.  Everything is driven by supply and demand, and the level of activity in the marketplace.  When the demand is great and the supply low, and the market is active (meaning, people have disposable income), the price goes up.  When there are a lot of high end used guitars out there, and people don't have as much free money, the price goes down.  If a bunch of people who own Rucks, decided to sell at the same time, the price would go down. ( At least it would for used ones.)

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Waddy

Photobucket Build Album Library

Sound Clips of most of my guitars

i was previously unaware of ruck, but upon googling him i notice that there is one chap is making and advertising ruck copies at over $4000. it is truly a compliment when folks advertise the making of copies of your guitars whilst you are still alive.

oh, as to your final question, go dig out your eccentric great aunt's crystal ball. collectors desires are about as rational as i am!

[QUOTE=fmorelli] I hope we don't see the day that investors buy custom guitars purely on speculation. Buy a guitar because you appreciate it and want to play it. If your discretionary income causes you to have to consider it as an investment, IMHO buy cheaper .
Filippo[/QUOTE]

I'm not going to buy a guitar purely on speculation, but as somebody who loves to play and has severe G.A.S. for fine instruments, resale is a consideration. The last two guitars I sold I had for 28 years, and 22 years respectively. When I find an instrument I like, I tend to keep and play it for awhile, but when it is time to trade up, it's nice to have instruments that at least maintain their value. I can be happy playing a guitar from one of many makers, so all else being equal, I'm trying to find one that will maintain it's value for that day when I eventually do trade it in.

Cheers!

John

Now ,the question begs, is the waiting list real? or made to look like he's more popular than demand?
Lance

John, You know about waiting lists. When your Hauser III arrives, how long will you have been waiting? Was it worth it? I think we know the answer.

My current waiting list is about 3 years, and I'm the only customer! But is it worth the wait to get one of my guitars?   I could sell my guitars for more than I paid for them, but then I'd have 'customers' and I don't want any of them thankyou, I'm bad enough.

By the way John, when the Hauser arrives I don't think you'll be worrying about resale value, just bathing in the warm glow of ownership. Don't forget to send me an MP3 when it does come. By the way, when you write your will the name is Colin Symonds .

Colin

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I don't believe in anything, I simply make use of a set of reasonable working hypotheses.

[QUOTE=fmorelli]
I'm of the school that guitars are meant to be played, pens are meant to be filled with ink, mechanical watches are meant to be wound and cars are meant to be driven. I could understand Andre Segovia's 1937 Hauser being under glass. But after that it starts to be a shame.

Filippo

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Totally agree with you. I am involved in restoration to playing condidtion of a number of historic instruments, early lutes and guitars, in the collection of the two college museums here. I've posted pictures of some of them here in the past. Some of the great lutes and 18th/19th century guitars are being brought back to health. Mind you it's very nerve racking taking the top off a 300 year old instrument! But the idea is that as many as possible should be able to be played.

Colin

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I don't believe in anything, I simply make use of a set of reasonable working hypotheses.

the only problem is that the "lock them away in glass cases" collector mentality syndrome has already infested the guitar market.

the violin fsmily collectors seem far more ready for their instruments to remain in the performance milieu, often lending instruments or whole collections to individual performers or orchesttras for performance use. sadly, i have never heard of a guitar collector being so clear headed and generous.

it seems that a great part of the guitar collecting market is provenance, rather than quality, driven. guitars are claimed to have value because of spurious, tenuous, and even sometimes actual connection to particular musicians. some may recall the rather comical hooha about an ebay listing of an L00, claimed by the vendor to have been played by robert johnson, which was the subject of a thread here some months ago.

all rather sad really.

[QUOTE=crazymanmichael] the only problem is that the "lock them away in glass cases" collector mentality syndrome has already infested the guitar market.

All rather sad really.

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All the collectors I know all play with their instruments. None are ever locked away behind glass, so to speak. The problem is that these guitars are not publically played that often because of several issue- security being the first. Others include privacy- I had a collector virtualy stalked by someone who wanted to buy a guitar and finally about wear- how would you like to have loads of folks want to try your stradivarius.

Simply put, the wider public have not developed the respect for fine guitars as they have for classical instruments.

Warmest regards,
Terence

Guitars should be considered instruments of music and any investment value you may gain is secondary.
I think Mr. Henderson may have raised his prices since the recent publication.
There are several top luthiers now who have long waiting lists and take deposits but lock no price until they start your guitar. This prevents speculators from turning the guitar when they receive it and making more money than the luthier.

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Tickle your guitar daily, and it'll tickle you back.