Well...
I generally get the point she is trying to make, but there are a few basic assumptions that I challenge.
1) She assumes as supply increases this puts a downward pressure on price.
True, in a static market. But I think that with the rise of globalization, for better or worse, world wide demand HAS to be rising. So therefore more supply doesn't necessarily mean that this is causing a downward price pressure.
2) There is an subtle implied point that the goods are interchangable. Again as supply increases there is a downward pressure on price - this tends to suggest that all guitars are in some ways equal. She even uses a complex analogy involving apples. These are commody items. Guitars are not commodities.
I think a more accurate analogy would be that the world could be flooded with yugos, low end honda's, chevy's etc. and that would not influence one iota of demand for Aston Marton, Lamborghini, Ferrari or any other high end custom crafted automobile. Even though they are all "cars" they are vastly different products each with its own value offering.
3) She seems to suggest that older more experienced individual luthiers who make a living doing this are under seige from weekend hobbiests who have full time jobs and benefits. The rationale goes that since that crowd doesn't need to make a living doing this their pricing policy is erratic and confuses the market.
First. While I have no real basis for this opinion (and I think that a well constructed professional survey would be very beneficial to the industry) I suspect that individual luthiers actually "lose business" more often to the small production firms (Santa Cruz, Collings, Bourgouis, etc.) or the custom shops of larger manufacturers. They are capable of turning out very nice instruments from very good craftsman yet employ much of the financial and operational rigor that allows them to bring a product to market at a "near" production price.
The reality is that the entire output of the individual luthier market doesn't even equate to a rounding error of total annual consumption.
4) If your sole output per year is only 20+/- units supply & demand curves etc are not influencing your business all that heavily. You may find that you need to clearly differentiate your product more effectively but there is a sufficiently large enough market out there to move that kind of production capacity.
I suspect that what is at the heart of that is it is getting "harder" to sell in the ways that have worked well in the past. It doesn't mean that the business isn't there, it just requires refinement and new directions in marketing.
4) There also seems to be an assumption that the market is fully aware of the individual luthier and the products available. I would challenge this.
I think that those that DO know we are out here are well informed and at the very top of the market. I suspect that most of the people wandering into Guitar Center, etc. have no idea that we are out here or what a wide range of offerings are available from individual luthiers.
Those that have achieved a bit of a general public reputation (and mind you this is nothing in comparison to Martin, Gibson, Taylor, Guild, etc.) are at the very very top end of the game. This would suggest to consumers that if you want a custom made guitar you need to spend $10k - $30k.
So I think there is ENORMOUS opportunity to find markets that are essentially untapped and unaware.
4) I think much of this assumes selling to consumers in North America (or possibly Japan). I think as more economies move from developing to developed, and with the weaking US dollar that makes our products more attractive than ever with foreign buyers.
My suspicion is that very few luthiers pursue business outside the US. Granted, it might be tough to learn the ropes of international trade, but once you learn it and develop overseas markets this provides a barrier of entry to competitors and you could build an entire career from these markets.
... shall I go on?
At the end of the day, I respect what Judy is trying to do. She raises a great issue, and I think it is worthy of discussion. I just disagree with her argument... that's all.
Again, where others see lemons, I see lemonade.
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