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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:25 pm 
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Note that in Italy when the cases spike above the available medical care the death rate spiked. That is a greater percentage of the 20% without mild symptoms were not able to get the life saving treatments to keep them alive long enough to recover. I would call the media and social media response a panic if this country was really responding in an effective way. No matter what you hear testing is still limited to the very sick. So people with mild symptoms can still be walking around infecting others. It took me a bit to understand why "slow down the rate of infection was important. The most critical tipping point comes if the infection rate is so fast that our medical care system is overrun. At that point our problems will look more like Italy or Iran. If the rate of infection can be slowed down the medical system will be better able to treat those that need acute care. As a bonus modeling and examples like south Korea shows that the total percentage of the population infected goes down. South Korea through massive and comprehensive free testing and tracking down contacts of all people that test positive is seeing a decline in the rate of new infections without mass quarantines. It baffles me and maybe some in the media and others on social media why the US can not be doing the same.

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These users thanked the author johnparchem for the post: J De Rocher (Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:37 pm)
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:36 pm 
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Chris Pile wrote:
Quote:
EDIT: It's not called the 'wuhan virus.'


So Lyme disease didn't start in Old Lyme, Connecticut? West Nile virus started in Kentucky, right? Ebola virus started near the Chicago River, not the Ebola in Zaire? Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever originated in Rio De Janeiro?

Also, last I checked - Wuhan is not a race. So, yeah - it's the WUHAN VIRUS because it originated there. Long medical tradition, okay?


furthermore, since the chicoms failed to relate the information to the rest of the world and are now currently issuing propaganda blaming the US, it is rightfully important to shove the name Wuhan Virus down their throats...it made its first large appearance there, and hence it should be named that as per medical tradition...the chicoms are victims of their own ways and I for one will NOT bow down to their attempts to dominate the world, in fact I'll be prying their guns from their dead stiff hands to use against the rest of them if it comes to that (hey, I'll probably be running low on ammo and will need theirs)


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:40 pm 
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Owning a small antique/vintage merchandise store that survives on tourist dollars we are very concerned for both our personal health and our stores viability. The small amount of lutherie I do is more a form of therapy for me then a lively hood. I'm the edge of being in the "vulnerable population" 59 7/8 mild copd (many years of wood working and working in not pleasant dusty environments as a contractor) but otherwise in good health. I attended a meeting last night our country government held to inform the public. There were representatives from the health care community (we have a medical school in our town) state epidemiologists, country and state govt officials, country health workers, representatives of the school system, first responders and many business owners. It was much like the updates we get from our natl leaders in that I heard one thing from politicians another from the health professionals. The good news is almost everybody has good plans or are the verge of having them approved. We thankfully have no know cases in our state, WV, but without fail every health professional warned that isn't going to last. The bad thing is our county govt and business and convention bureau is in denial. With several events coming up in the next month drawing several thousands of people (normally) there is no talk of cancelling them yet, ugh. I know they will be, and I hate it, they mark the beginning of your shop operating with a profit for the year. This is going to be the reality for the coming months.
I have perhaps been getting better info then most, my son is working as a post doc at Emory in the epidemiology dept. He has been doing modeling of the spread of covid 19 since mid January, even with the limited data available the projections have been good, not perfect, not enough history to draw on, still the projections he has shared with me have so far reflected the reality on the ground. My daughter in law is an epidemiologist for the state of GA, also a number cruncher. Her job puts more on the front line. They have been in contact with the CDC since early January. With the CDC not having adequate funding and drawing criticism from the current political leadership they could do very little at the onset when the money would have done the most good, such is the current political climate.
So here we are its going to be tough for a while our little shop will make it, Mollie and I will hopefully stay healthy, my fears are for those less fortunate, which are many in WV. We will go on with our live taking more care where appropriate.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:52 pm 
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Mike_P wrote:
Chris Pile wrote:
Quote:
EDIT: It's not called the 'wuhan virus.'


So Lyme disease didn't start in Old Lyme, Connecticut? West Nile virus started in Kentucky, right? Ebola virus started near the Chicago River, not the Ebola in Zaire? Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever originated in Rio De Janeiro?

Also, last I checked - Wuhan is not a race. So, yeah - it's the WUHAN VIRUS because it originated there. Long medical tradition, okay?


furthermore, since the chicoms failed to relate the information to the rest of the world and are now currently issuing propaganda blaming the US, it is rightfully important to shove the name Wuhan Virus down their throats...it made its first large appearance there, and hence it should be named that as per medical tradition...the chicoms are victims of their own ways and I for one will NOT bow down to their attempts to dominate the world, in fact I'll be prying their guns from their dead stiff hands to use against the rest of them if it comes to that (hey, I'll probably be running low on ammo and will need theirs)

Yeah you tell 'em Tex <spitoon>


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:01 pm 
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Chris Ide wrote:
Owning a small antique/vintage merchandise store that survives on tourist dollars we are very concerned for both our personal health and our stores viability. The small amount of lutherie I do is more a form of therapy for me then a lively hood. I'm the edge of being in the "vulnerable population" 59 7/8 mild copd (many years of wood working and working in not pleasant dusty environments as a contractor) but otherwise in good health. I attended a meeting last night our country government held to inform the public. There were representatives from the health care community (we have a medical school in our town) state epidemiologists, country and state govt officials, country health workers, representatives of the school system, first responders and many business owners. It was much like the updates we get from our natl leaders in that I heard one thing from politicians another from the health professionals. The good news is almost everybody has good plans or are the verge of having them approved. We thankfully have no know cases in our state, WV, but without fail every health professional warned that isn't going to last. The bad thing is our county govt and business and convention bureau is in denial. With several events coming up in the next month drawing several thousands of people (normally) there is no talk of cancelling them yet, ugh. I know they will be, and I hate it, they mark the beginning of your shop operating with a profit for the year. This is going to be the reality for the coming months.
I have perhaps been getting better info then most, my son is working as a post doc at Emory in the epidemiology dept. He has been doing modeling of the spread of covid 19 since mid January, even with the limited data available the projections have been good, not perfect, not enough history to draw on, still the projections he has shared with me have so far reflected the reality on the ground. My daughter in law is an epidemiologist for the state of GA, also a number cruncher. Her job puts more on the front line. They have been in contact with the CDC since early January. With the CDC not having adequate funding and drawing criticism from the current political leadership they could do very little at the onset when the money would have done the most good, such is the current political climate.
So here we are its going to be tough for a while our little shop will make it, Mollie and I will hopefully stay healthy, my fears are for those less fortunate, which are many in WV. We will go on with our live taking more care where appropriate.


Do you sell any stuff online? My sister has an antique shop and uses Etsy and it supplements her income fairly well. It might be something to consider as people don't want to be out and about.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:53 pm 
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An interesting article about where some recent diseases originated and what they were named:
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/arc ... us/607900/


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:03 pm 
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Flu can be and has been a bad one, but this has the potential to be much worse, about 10x. If you get the flu they have tamiful, you can get a vaccination before you are exposed, and the rate of death is about .02%

The swine flu back in 2009 or whatever infected 20% of the world population. If covid-09 stays around, multiply the number infected by about 2.5%.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:05 pm 
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They closed Disneyland....

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:49 pm 
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Chris Pile wrote:
They closed Disneyland....

Now we know it is serious

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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:21 am 
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Chris Ide wrote:
Owning a small antique/vintage merchandise store that survives on tourist dollars we are very concerned for both our personal health and our stores viability. The small amount of lutherie I do is more a form of therapy for me then a lively hood. I'm the edge of being in the "vulnerable population" 59 7/8 mild copd (many years of wood working and working in not pleasant dusty environments as a contractor) but otherwise in good health. I attended a meeting last night our country government held to inform the public. There were representatives from the health care community (we have a medical school in our town) state epidemiologists, country and state govt officials, country health workers, representatives of the school system, first responders and many business owners. It was much like the updates we get from our natl leaders in that I heard one thing from politicians another from the health professionals. The good news is almost everybody has good plans or are the verge of having them approved. We thankfully have no know cases in our state, WV, but without fail every health professional warned that isn't going to last. The bad thing is our county govt and business and convention bureau is in denial. With several events coming up in the next month drawing several thousands of people (normally) there is no talk of cancelling them yet, ugh. I know they will be, and I hate it, they mark the beginning of your shop operating with a profit for the year. This is going to be the reality for the coming months.
I have perhaps been getting better info then most, my son is working as a post doc at Emory in the epidemiology dept. He has been doing modeling of the spread of covid 19 since mid January, even with the limited data available the projections have been good, not perfect, not enough history to draw on, still the projections he has shared with me have so far reflected the reality on the ground. My daughter in law is an epidemiologist for the state of GA, also a number cruncher. Her job puts more on the front line. They have been in contact with the CDC since early January. With the CDC not having adequate funding and drawing criticism from the current political leadership they could do very little at the onset when the money would have done the most good, such is the current political climate.
So here we are its going to be tough for a while our little shop will make it, Mollie and I will hopefully stay healthy, my fears are for those less fortunate, which are many in WV. We will go on with our live taking more care where appropriate.


Chris—

First, as a fellow Mountaineer (transplanted from KY and a few other places, but here for 22 years so far), I hope that you, your family, and your business, all make it through this OK. I’m not sure if there is anything I can do to help, but I can make this offer: if you need something taken care of in Charleston, send me a PM and I’ll see what I can do.

Second, the part of your post that concerns me the most is the fact that the local officials held a public meeting to inform the public regarding how to deal with the coronavirus. That’s like holding a Weight Watchers meeting and serving Five Guys hamburgers. The absolute best thing we can all do, right now, is stop going to public gatherings for a few weeks. And the best way for those in charge to stop people from going to public gatherings is to postpone the gatherings or figure out an online alternative.

Our most important goal right now is to “flatten the curve” so that we do not completely overwhelm hospitals with the most serious (as in, need to go on a ventilator) cases of the disease. If we can keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed with those cases, then we should make it through this with minimal fatalities. If we let the curve turn into a huge spike, then we will have more serious cases at the same time than we have ventilators. That is the crisis we need to avoid. You stop that by slowing the spread, and you slow the spread by significantly curtailing physical interaction between people.

Anyway, again, best wishes for this trying time, and I’m serious about the offer to take care of anything you might need done in Charleston.



These users thanked the author doncaparker for the post: Barry Daniels (Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:32 am)
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:56 am 
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Since we are on this topic, a friend forwarded this fascinating and scary look at the virus

[url]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
[/url]

Ed


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:06 am 
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Curious, has anyone filed for the federal money intended for small businesses suffering from this mess?
With both LaConner and Artisan shows postponing, I lost a lot of money in flight cancellation fees, AB&B fees, etc.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:18 pm 
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Chris Pile wrote:
Just in from a pal at Stanford Hospital Board...

The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late.

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.

Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon.

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice. 8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water!

THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.


https://www.foxnews.com/us/stanford-dis ... nformation


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:33 pm 
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I figured that was fake news. Anyone who says anything definitive about this new virus is making up stuff because they just have little experience with it yet.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:32 pm 
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Apologies, guys. My pal at Stanford is an IT guy, not a doc - I thought he sent info straight from the horse's mouth. Instead, he fell for it like a rank amateur and should have known.

So... follow the CDC guidelines.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:36 am 
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No worries Chris. I'm sure your intention was to be helpful. This just shows how easily false or misleading information gets propagated and multiplied.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:22 pm 
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I haven’t gone through the posts lately so forgive me if I restate something.

I hope you guys are ok here.
Some areas seem to have the luxury to treat it like a giant media hoax, however here the story is different.
Yes, there are people who panic, but lots of toilet paper and other weird stuff, but there’s a serious side to things here. We’re sort of a regional medical hub with two major hospitals in our it’s so maybe we get to see more than a lot of folks. While we don’t have a LOT of cases in the hospital it has doubled every few days.
In addition to this one of our local elementary school’s principals wife is in VERY serious condition. It’s someone many of us in Rome know personally and she’s fighting for her life on a vent at Emory now. Her name is April and anyone who would, she could use your prayers in a big way.

Most churches here are online only and all of our schools are out for 2 weeks.

That said there are some positives here. While it can really be a schedule weight, it is a good time to slow down. Take time to be with your family. Take some hikes, have a game night, reconnect out of the necessity of mild quarantine for a while.

I hope y’all are all well. Try to be a blessing to someone who may be at risk and be wise with your actions.

Peace


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:35 pm 
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Another silver lining: I'm hoping that this experience demonstrates the value of factually accurate information, as opposed to spin or propaganda. At a time like this, we really, really need to make intelligent, rational decisions based on facts, not the party lines from our respective tribes. In reality, we would benefit from doing that at all times. But maybe living through a pandemic can remind us of that value. My personal goal is to convince a close relative (I'm not saying which one) to stop getting their "news" from untrustworthy sources. It leads them to take unreasonable positions, and frankly, sound like a much worse human being than I know them to be. Maybe this experience can help them be more discerning in their consumption of media, or at least not treat the bull***t as if it is Gospel.



These users thanked the author doncaparker for the post (total 3): Robbie_McD (Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:31 am) • Smylight (Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:02 pm) • Barry Daniels (Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:04 am)
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:53 pm 
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SnowManSnow wrote:
I haven’t gone through the posts lately so forgive me if I restate something.

I hope you guys are ok here.
Some areas seem to have the luxury to treat it like a giant media hoax, however here the story is different.
Yes, there are people who panic, but lots of toilet paper and other weird stuff, but there’s a serious side to things here. We’re sort of a regional medical hub with two major hospitals in our it’s so maybe we get to see more than a lot of folks. While we don’t have a LOT of cases in the hospital it has doubled every few days.
In addition to this one of our local elementary school’s principals wife is in VERY serious condition. It’s someone many of us in Rome know personally and she’s fighting for her life on a vent at Emory now. Her name is April and anyone who would, she could use your prayers in a big way.

Most churches here are online only and all of our schools are out for 2 weeks.

That said there are some positives here. While it can really be a schedule weight, it is a good time to slow down. Take time to be with your family. Take some hikes, have a game night, reconnect out of the necessity of mild quarantine for a while.

I hope y’all are all well. Try to be a blessing to someone who may be at risk and be wise with your actions.

Peace


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Just got news that April is doing much better after transferring .... good news indeed


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:29 pm 
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Ignore CNN, MSNBC, and Fox, and stick with the CDC feed for usable info. Social media is likewise entertaining as the networks may be, but nearly useless for reliable info. If possible, putting your feet up for a few weeks seems wise, but otherwise, avoid the usual social scene and exercise good hygiene. My older relatives are self-quarantining for a few weeks, so us youngsters are doing the shopping and setting up the NetFlix accounts.

FWIW, once away from cities and larger towns (100,000 or larger), it seems like the logistics system is working fine. If TP is critical, try a few small town markets. The current crunch seems to be more the case of bi-monthly paychecks and inattention until the kiddies got a second Spring break than anything structural.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:49 pm 
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Woodie--

I can't speak for every non-urban area, but here in Charleston, WV (where we have literally not yet seen a single Covid-19 positive test result in the whole state), the logistics are not working as fine as you describe. I was at Kroger Friday night, and they were completely out of fresh beef, fresh chicken, potatoes, onions, and toilet paper. I could send you photos. It was a bit of a crazy scene. No fights, but a lot of anxious people shopping for groceries, with lots of needs (or desires) going unmet.

I agree with you that most folks should avoid social media as news sources, and many of the television networks are skewing their coverage, too. But there is also misinformation (some of it well-intentioned, as I'm sure yours was) in the form of minimizing the impact. I have personally seen the logistics in a non-urban area (Charleston is @ 50,000 people) break down, due to the hoarding instinct that kicks in at times like this. So, be careful with your broad brush.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:25 pm 
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... y-efforts/

at this point, even when away from large municipalities, the supply chain is frakked...too many hoarders not giving a flip about others (when you find the pet food isle empty you know people are sick in the head and don't even care about animals but their own)...the best one can do is try and keep a bit of extra available if possible and hope for the best...what really sickens me are the profiteers...one such *redacted* actually had the cojones to whine about what is he going to do with those 17,000 bottles of hand sanitizer he drove all over 2 states to get and proceeded to get banned from Amazon over his sales...karma's a biatch buddy, that's what I say

what really miffs me is what about the freaking milk??? the stuff has an expiration date and from my experience with a finicky fridge doesn't react too well to being frozen...sheeshus, people are such lemmings.

I want everyone to step back and think real hard of the concept of the following:

if this was Captain Tripps, you'd have no worries about supplies...after it hit there'd be plenty for those very few who survived...it's NOT you idiots (screaming at the general population), the mortality rate is not all that (though people WILL die) so get the freak over it and think of your neighbors who simply want some food on the table...they have children and pets also you greedy pigs...this has happened before, and barring some major change in knowledge will happen again.

as a disclaimer I admit to being a week ahead on pet supplies (16 freaking cats that have shown up at the door starving over the years...that alone eats up a fair amount of food, litter, and dang paper towels), and maybe 1/2 a week of food for my wife and I...so while certainly not starving, on the flip I'm certainly not prepared for the worse (just like the vast majority of people who simply live day to day surviving)


Last edited by Mike_P on Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:30 pm 
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johnparchem wrote:
Note that in Italy when the cases spike above the available medical care the death rate spiked. That is a greater percentage of the 20% without mild symptoms were not able to get the life saving treatments to keep them alive long enough to recover. I would call the media and social media response a panic if this country was really responding in an effective way. No matter what you hear testing is still limited to the very sick. So people with mild symptoms can still be walking around infecting others. It took me a bit to understand why "slow down the rate of infection was important. The most critical tipping point comes if the infection rate is so fast that our medical care system is overrun. At that point our problems will look more like Italy or Iran. If the rate of infection can be slowed down the medical system will be better able to treat those that need acute care. As a bonus modeling and examples like south Korea shows that the total percentage of the population infected goes down. South Korea through massive and comprehensive free testing and tracking down contacts of all people that test positive is seeing a decline in the rate of new infections without mass quarantines. It baffles me and maybe some in the media and others on social media why the US can not be doing the same.


Americans would not tolerate the degree of invasion of privacy seen in South Korea re: their social network tracking and public availability of contacts, movement, etc. As to test kits, emerging industrial nations like South Korea has not yet outsourced their medical supply chains to China or other low-cost centers of production as the US and other 'post industrials' have largely done, and their government essentially stood down the approval process which results in weeks or months of FDA interactions here in the US to bring something like a new test kit to market. Reuters glosses over the later with a sentence about the Koreans 'cutting red tape,' but our inconsistently applied, often onerous US regulatory environment is a barrier to agile response to address emerging threats like new viruses.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-response-specialre-idUSKBN20Z27P

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:38 pm 
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First name: Jay
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As of today more than one quarter of all the diagnosed cases in the U.S. are here in Washington and about 85% of those are in the immediate area around Seattle so this is a hot spot. Given that, it's really strange to me how inconsistent the grocery store situation is around here. Stores are not being wiped out across the board at all. In my area just outside Seattle, the stocks in the grocery stores have been pretty much normal all along and still are aside from the toilet paper aisle and the hand sanitizer. The only shortages I've seen are very specific ones. All the regular spaghetti noodles were gone from one store on Friday, but every other type of pasta was fine even the ones priced the same as the spaghetti noodles. For some reason, the largest size box of Corn Flakes has been out of stock for a couple weeks, but all other cereals are fine. Weird stuff. On the other hand, people I know who live in Seattle and a few other surrounding areas have seen some stores whose stocks were hit hard. I suspect there is some sort of snowball effect that happens in specific stores. If people notice some depletion of stocks on some shelves, they may feel like they should be buying more and then it just spirals out of control from there. I've been to the grocery stores in my area something like fifteen times over the past four weeks and not once have there been long lines or people checking out with carts piled high. Contrast that with reports and photos from stores in other parts of the country that have hardly been affected by the virus yet where people are going nuts. Human nature is very strange.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:10 pm 
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Glad to read your report, Jay. I’ve just returned home from Whistler and was worried about what I might find.
Best to all,

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